Geoeconomic Uncertainty Likely to Shape Gold Performance in 2026 — Market Talk

Gold's outlook for 2026 is likely defined by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty, the World Gold Council says in a research note. Unexpected events, such as Trump's Liberation Day tariffs this year, are impossible to anticipate, they note, adding that the frequency of tail risk events is on the rise. The trade association thinks the forces of softer economic growth, accommodative policy and persistent geopolitical risks could support gold rather than undermine it. Investors will likely maintain some exposure to gold given the unpredictability of current geoeconomic dynamics. "In a world where shocks and surprises are increasingly the norm, gold's capacity to provide diversification and downside protection remains as relevant as ever," it adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)